New forecasting models based on artificial intelligence can predict up to six hours in advance floods caused by small rivers and streams, i.e. watercourses that are currently more difficult to manage and monitor than large rivers. The news comes from a study conducted by the University of Pisa and the Consorzio di Bonifica Toscana Nord (Land Reclamation Authority) and published in Scientific Reports, a Nature Group journal.
“Heavy rainfall, concentrated in a short period of time and over restricted areas makes it difficult to manage small watercourses, where the speed of rainwater runoff increases the risk of sudden flooding. Just think of the floods that occurred in November 2023 in the province of Prato, where the Furba and Bagnolo streams overflowed, and more recently in the Valdera and Livorno areas,” explains Monica Bini, professor at the Department of Earth Sciences at the University of Pisa, who coordinated the research.
Predictive models based on artificial intelligence have been trained using the rainfall and hydrometric database of the Regional Hydrological Service of Tuscany. The aim is to develop simple and easy-to-use software to predict critical watercourse situations and mitigate damage.
“Artificial intelligence has proven to be a valuable tool to provide early warnings in small pools, even six hours in advance, but it remains crucial that operational decisions must always be supervised by experts,” emphasised Dr. Marco Luppichini, first author of the paper and research fellow at the Department of Earth Sciences.
Monica Bini e Ismaele Ridolfi
“The availability of rainfall data from the Regional Hydrological Service and the funding provided by the Consorzio di Bonifica, for which we thank its President Ismaele Ridolfi, were fundamental to the success of the research, in which the engineer Lorenzo Fontana also participated on behalf of the Consorzio,” says Monica Bini, “I am also proud of the participation of Giada Vailati, a student of the Master’s Degree course in Environmental Sciences of which I am President, because I believe it is a concrete example of how the course deals with highly topical issues and how our students can immediately become protagonists of international research and have an impact on the management of the territory”.
“This is a result that makes us proud of the work we have done and of the collaboration we have established in recent years with a centre of excellence such as the Department of Earth Sciences of the University of Pisa,” points out Ismaele Ridolfi, President of the Consorzio di Bonifica Toscana Nord. “In the past few weeks, the current climate emergency has given a terrible demonstration of the catastrophic effects it can have on our lives, with the cases of Emilia Romagna, Marche, and Tuscany itself, and the recent floods that have hit Spain, particularly the Valencia area. In addition to the necessary regular maintenance and extraordinary works to reduce risks, we have a duty to make the best use of the new tools that can predict dangerous events and their possible impact on our territories as soon as possible. The collaboration will continue,” Ridolfi concludes, “thanks to the newly-signed agreement, which aims to deepen our understanding and extend studies to other watercourses”.
(Cover photoi Наталья Коллегова from Pixabay)